Vector Atlas II

Evidence-based mapping developed and in place to support prioritisation of scarce vector control resources to maximise impact

Balancing economic value with effective vector control has been the mainstay of recent vector control decisions across Africa. Nonetheless, with economic fluctuations, population growth, competing priorities and geopolitical events, the gap between investment and need has been growing. Budget restrictions impact every stage of operative vector control, from the generation of vector surveillance data (species, behaviour, IR) to the effective deployment of situation appropriate interventions that account for local vector species composition, behaviour and IR. Hence our primary outcome (evidence-based mapping developed and in place to support prioritisation of scarce vector control resources to maximise impact) will be achieved when the work detailed here leads to the uptake and use of VA spatial maps and models by our case partner countries to support their vector control decision making. As the world shifts into a new paradigm, we need the best possible intelligence to support decision makers as they provide effective vector control within increasingly constrained budgets.

The foundational phase of the Vector Atlas (VA1) developed a comprehensive data platform, novel modelling methods, and close engagement with malaria endemic countries and global collaborators to deliver malaria vector focused maps relevant for vector control. The next phase: Vector Atlas II (VA2), will build on this work to deliver:  evidence-based mapping developed and in place to support prioritisation of scarce vector control resources to maximise impact. These maps will be developed in close collaboration with, and in direct support of, our network of country partners and collaborators. In VA1 we established new collaborative networks to begin the process of integrating vector maps into Subnational tailoring (SNT) and vector surveillance in six partner countries: Nigeria, DRC, Uganda, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Senegal. These collaborative networks comprise the National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCPs), Gates Foundation funded TSUs (via CHAI), vector data partners (in-country vector researchers and PMI VectorLink/Evolve), and SNT technical partners (AHADI, Bluesquare). In VA2 we will build upon and extend these collaborations (including up to three new partner countries) to deliver vector-informed SNT. These collaborations and our program of work will be fully synergistic with the Malaria Atlas Project nodes in Dar es Salaam (MAP Dar) and Perth (MAP Perth), ensuring that the most detailed vector information can support malaria vector control via MAP’s burden mapping and decision-support networks.

Our new mapping outputs will synthesise the core components of vectorial capacity and intervention effectiveness using VA data and base maps combined with newly developed surfaces including vector survivorship and genotypic insecticide resistance mechanisms. Together, these surfaces will capture critical spatial variation in key but complex vector transmission metrics giving intuitive single-surface estimates. Specifically, the models will describe vector control impact (VCI) on malaria transmission in a format that promotes their interpretability and utility to NMCPs. Moreover, it will enable close integration of fundamental vector traits into epidemiological mapping and modelling analyses to evaluate the health outcomes of alternative intervention prioritisations.

To ensure maximum evidence-based support for these novel outputs, the VA2 will continue to expand the Vector Atlas Database (VADB), working with our country partners to include unpublished national datasets and building new collaborations with aligned projects, such as the Sanger Institute’s ANOSPP project and the Institute for Disease Modeling’s (IDM) CASTAnet project, to ingest a greater breadth of vector focused data. Continuing to expand the VADB allows data richer locations to help provide better estimates of conditions in data poor locations, filling in gaps where surveillance data may become increasingly restricted.

Finally, to continue building strong relationships with our country partners, we will add up to three new national case partners and two more country-based PhDs. VA2 will advance our existing collaborations with TSUs and global modelling groups and include a dedicated role within the VA to oversee these activities. These activities will be comprehensively collaborative, working closely with our colleagues and partners to continue building capacity in use and understanding of spatial modelling. Due to differences between countries in landscapes and vector control challenges (highlighted in the different model prioritisation matrices developed with each partner in VA1), and the uncertainty due to recent drastic funding shifts, we aim to interact with all partners in VA2 and provide support wherever helpful. By highlighting the additional utility of national vector surveillance and research data, we will determine how small changes (standardisation, small adjustments in locating sentinel sites) can increase the value of vector data for national vector control decision making. Working closely with our partners, we will identify where realistic adjustments can be made.